Multivariate conformal prediction requires nonconformity scores that compress residual vectors into scalars while preserving certain implicit geometric structure of the residual distribution. We introduce a Multivariate Kernel Score (MKS) that produces prediction regions that explicitly adapt to this geometry. We show that the proposed score resembles the Gaussian process posterior variance, unifying Bayesian uncertainty quantification with the coverage guarantees of frequentist-type. Moreover, the MKS can be decomposed into an anisotropic Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) that interpolates between kernel density estimation and covariance-weighted distance. We prove finite-sample coverage guarantees and establish convergence rates that depend on the effective rank of the kernel-based covariance operator rather than the ambient dimension, enabling dimension-free adaptation. On regression tasks, the MKS reduces the volume of prediction region significantly, compared to ellipsoidal baselines while maintaining nominal coverage, with larger gains at higher dimensions and tighter coverage levels.

Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings, including healthcare, finance, and mobile sensing, the calibration data required for CP are distributed across multiple clients, each with its own local data distribution. In this federated setting, data can often be partitioned into, potentially overlapping, groups, which may reflect client-specific strata or cross-cutting attributes such as demographic or semantic categories. We propose group-conditional federated conformal prediction (GC-FCP), a novel protocol that provides group-conditional coverage guarantees. GC-FCP constructs mergeable, group-stratified coresets from local calibration scores, enabling clients to communicate compact weighted summaries that support efficient aggregation and calibration at the server. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate the performance of GC-FCP compared to centralized calibration baselines.

We propose a method called clustered conformal prediction that clusters together classes having "similar" conformal

However, progress is limited by a lack of standardized datasets and comparison metrics, causing methods to be compared in an ad hoc manner.

The seminal work of "equalized coverage" proposed an uncertainty-aware fairness notion.

In context-specific applications such as robotics, telecommunications, and healthcare, artificial intelligence systems often face the challenge of limited training data. This scarcity introduces epistemic uncertainty, i.e., reducible uncertainty stemming from incomplete knowledge of the underlying data distribution, which fundamentally limits predictive performance. This review paper examines formal methodologies that address data-limited regimes through two complementary approaches: quantifying epistemic uncertainty and mitigating data scarcity via synthetic data augmentation. We begin by reviewing generalized Bayesian learning frameworks that characterize epistemic uncertainty through generalized posteriors in the model parameter space, as well as ``post-Bayes'' learning frameworks. We continue by presenting information-theoretic generalization bounds that formalize the relationship between training data quantity and predictive uncertainty, providing a theoretical justification for generalized Bayesian learning. Moving beyond methods with asymptotic statistical validity, we survey uncertainty quantification methods that provide finite-sample statistical guarantees, including conformal prediction and conformal risk control. Finally, we examine recent advances in data efficiency by combining limited labeled data with abundant model predictions or synthetic data. Throughout, we take an information-theoretic perspective, highlighting the role of information measures in quantifying the impact of data scarcity.

Reasoning LLMs (RLMs) such as OpenAI o1, DeepSeek-R1, and Qwen3 deliver strong multi-step reasoning through chain-of-thought generation, but their large model sizes and lengthy decode-time outputs make them costly to deploy and unsuitable for resource-constrained settings. To reduce computing and memory cost, pruning offers a promising solution by removing unimportant parameters. However, despite their success on standard LLMs, existing pruning methods severely damage RLMs, as even moderate sparsity (e.g., 20%) can collapse accuracy and completely disrupt the model's reasoning coherence. We begin by analyzing why existing pruning pipelines fail on reasoning LLMs and find that their brittleness largely stems from a mismatch between the calibration data, the pruning objective, and the model's decode-time reasoning behavior. Our study further shows that the most reliable calibration signal comes not from human-written labels but from the model's own self-generated reasoning traces, which more accurately reflect its inference distribution. Guided by these insights, we introduce RESP, a self-reflective structured pruning framework that aligns pruning decisions with the model's reasoning dynamics through self-generated calibration, decode-only gradient-based importance estimation, and progressive regeneration that maintains calibration fidelity as sparsity increases. Experiments on Qwen3-8B demonstrate that RESP markedly outperforms existing structured pruning methods on both GSM8K and MathQA, preserving near-dense accuracy at 20-30% sparsity and substantially mitigating performance collapse at higher sparsity levels. At 40% sparsity, RESP attains 81.3% accuracy on GSM8K and 59.6% on MathQA, surpassing the strongest baselines by 66.87% and 47%, respectively.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) continue to scale in parameter count, deploying them on commodity hardware has become increasingly challenging. Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) addresses this by reducing the precision of model weights, typically to 4-bit or lower. However, uniform quantization often leads to significant performance degradation due to the presence of ``outlier features'' -- weights that, while few in number, are critical for maintaining model accuracy. Current state-of-the-art methods such as AWQ (Activation-aware Weight Quantization) and SpQR (Sparse Quantization Representations) rely on calibration data to identify these salient weights via activation magnitudes or Hessian sensitivity. In scenarios where data privacy is paramount or calibration data is unavailable, these methods are inapplicable. In this work, we propose a data-free, structure-aware hypothesis: that the weights identified as Principal Components via Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) are intrinsically important to the model's downstream performance. We introduce a novel selection heuristic that preserves the top-$k$ weights aligned with the principal components in FP32, while aggressively quantizing the residual weights. We compare our method against activation-aware (AWQ) and second-order (SpQR) methods across GLUE benchmarks (MRPC, RTE, QNLI) using a DistilBERT backbone. Our experiments reveal that structural importance is highly correlated with functional importance. On the challenging RTE task, our SVD-based method achieves an accuracy of 66.06\%, outperforming both AWQ (65.34\%) and SpQR (65.34\%) at high protection budgets, validating that intrinsic matrix structure can serve as a robust proxy for weight saliency without the need for forward passes or calibration data.

Post-training quantization is an effective method for reducing the serving cost of large language models, where the standard approach is to use a round-to-nearest quantization level scheme. However, this often introduces large errors due to outliers in the weights. Proposed mitigation mechanisms include applying adaptive rounding, random rotation transformations or committing to a post-training target using calibration data. Unfortunately, this reliance on calibration data can be severely limiting in some real-world scenarios as such data may be unavailable or subject to privacy regulations. In this paper, we propose algorithms to optimize transformations and adaptive rounding without access to any calibration data. The optimization is achieved by designing a suitable proxy function for the quantization loss without calibration data. To maintain inference efficiency, we perform structured matrix transformations for single matrices. For paired weights that interact directly in the computation graph, we use dual matrix transformations and adaptive rounding methods. We conduct experiments on Gemma 2 models, and observe consistent improvement over the baselines. For Gemma 2 9B quantization, our method improves the average benchmark score from 61.9 to 62.4 for 4-bit quantization and from 52.0 to 60.6 for 3-bit quantization, while adding less than 3% of computation overhead. Furthermore, our method achieves performance comparable to the commonly used GPTQ method, which requires calibration data.